Brain Drain to Brain Gain: Discussing the Pandemic’s Demographic Gift

Winston-Salem quietly achieved what many cities dream about: attracting thousands of young professionals in the crucial 25-44 age demographic. This group represents peak earning years, family formation decisions, and the highest economic productivity—making them the most valuable population segment for driving growth and thus demand in commercial real estate. After decades of struggling with brain drain and losing college graduates to larger metros, the city suddenly became desirable to young educated professionals.

But here's the inconvenient truth: much of this success was coincidental, driven by pandemic-era remote work trends that fundamentally transformed commercial real estate and are already reversing. I say coincidental because the same things that we all enjoy about Winston Salem (lower cost of living, moderate climate, proximity to nature, etc.), others discovered. Not all this new growth was positive as it had negative effects on housing affordability and compounded supply issues highlighted by decades of under building of new housing.

So What Happened?

The numbers tell a remarkable story. From 2010-2019, Winston-Salem's net in-migration averaged just 1,275-3,700 people annually. Population growth was sluggish at 0.4-0.6% per year, and headlines from the Triad Business Journal like "Triad sees drop in 25-34 population" captured the reality of ongoing brain drain and the lack of any meaningful brain gain.

Then the pandemic hit, and everything changed—not just for Winston-Salem, but for the entire commercial real estate landscape.

Since 2020, Winston-Salem has averaged 6,300 net new residents annually—nearly double the pre-pandemic rate. The 25-44 age cohort jumped from 32.6% of the population in 2020 to 33.6% in 2023, representing thousands of young professionals choosing Winston-Salem over other markets.

This wasn't gradual improvement—it was a demographic shift that happened consistently over three years, enabled by a complete restructuring of how and where people work.

The question isn't whether Winston-Salem can attract young professionals—we've proven we can. The question is whether we can keep them as the economic conditions that brought them here begin to change, and whether we can attract new professionals to follow their lead.

The pandemic didn't just change migration patterns—it fundamentally altered commercial real estate demand, space utilization, and location decisions in ways that benefited cities like Winston-Salem. These shifts created a perfect storm of opportunity that Winston-Salem capitalized on almost by accident.

Why They Came (And Why They Might Leave)

The post-2020 migration wasn't driven by Winston-Salem's economic development efforts or university retention programs. It was driven by external forces that made our existing advantages suddenly compelling:

Remote Work Flexibility: When geography became less tied to employment, Winston-Salem's affordability and quality of life became major assets. Young professionals could maintain big-city salaries while enjoying small-city costs and lifestyle.

Housing Affordability Crisis: As larger markets including Charlotte, Raleigh, and Atlanta housing costs soared, Winston-Salem offered an affordable refuge.

Quality of Life Reassessment: The pandemic prompted many to prioritize community, green space, and work-life balance all things that local residents (me included) enjoy.

But the national commercial real estate landscape is shifting back...

Return-to-Office Mandates: Companies are recalling workers to central locations, reducing location flexibility that made Winston-Salem compelling. This post is not an indictment on return to office mandates, it is highlighting how Winston Salem has significantly benefited from the remote worker population. Selfishly I want all local companies to adhere to a return to office mandate (that would increase occupancy rates allowing for rental rate growth potentially promoting new development) and those companies out of area to continue to employ our remote workers. 

Office Market Corrections: Urban office rents are declining as companies rightsize, potentially making expensive metros more accessible again.  

Housing Market Stabilization: Other metros are becoming more affordable, reducing Winston-Salem's relative advantage.

Coming Up Next: What are the stakes for Winston-Salem?

From retail and restaurant growth to the residential property pipeline, the stakes are high for Winston-Salem. In our next installment, we'll take a look at what this 25-44 age group surge has contributed to and what the commercial real estate industry needs to do to not only attract but retain this valuable demographic.